If calendar interoperability really is going to happen, it'll probably be in part because of the work of people like Brian Dear oF EVDB, a startup service that lets anyone publish event information, then subscribe to it, in a structured way.
I talked with Brian last month for Opening Move. Not a solution for individual-to-individual calendar sync, but definitely a nice step in the right direction, and the price is right (free).
I give EVDB a Swampdrain Factor of +2.
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